Pfizer Stock Forecast: Latest Price

PFE Trading 4.05% lower at $58.55 in the current trading session.

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Pfizer Antiviral Drug Shows 90% Positive Results Against Covid

• Pfizer recently announced that its Covid-19 antiviral pill reduces the risk of hospitalization and death by up to 89 percent in high risk patients and final trial results were in line with the earlier results. Although the trail was held while Delta being the dominant coronavirus variant, Pfizer believes that antiviral treatment called Paxlovid will work against Omicron as well.
• The positive results are a major blow to rival antiviral from Merck which has proved to be less effective than initially hoped. The preliminary data showed the pill reduced hospitalization and death from Covid-19 by 50%, taken within five days of onset of symptoms, but once the company carried out final analysis on data, its candidate molnupiravir’s effectiveness is dropped to 30%. FDA committee has not approved the pill considering the modest effectiveness.
• FDA is believed to authorize the drug of Pfizer soon, within few days and patients are expected to start receiving it from year end.
• Pfizer said that antiviral pill is found to reduce the risk of hospitalization and death by 89% when given to unvaccinated people at high risk of severe Covid within five days of onset of symptoms. The final data on high risk patients showed that 697 people were given Paxlovid and only five were hospitalized and none died, in contrast 44 of patients given placebo were hospitalized and nine died. The company also conducted separate trails on people with lower risk including vaccinated people and it reduced hospitalization and death by 70% among this category.
• Pfizer treatment is meant to be taken as 30 pills over five days. Patients will take three pills at a time: two of Pfizer’s new pills and one of low dose HIV drug ritonavir, helping Pfizer drug to remain active in the body longer. Ritonavir has potential side effects and can interfere with cholesterol. If the positive side of Paxlovid outweighs side effects, FDA will approve it soon.

Pfizer $6.7 billion deal to Buy Arena Pharmaceuticals

• Pfizer claimed on 13.12.2021 that it is planning to buy drug developer Arena Pharmaceuticals for $6.7 billion in cash, to bet on Arena treatment candidate that target diseases affecting the stomach and intestine. The $100 per share offer is already approved by boards of both companies.
• The company last month acquired immune –oncology company Trillium Therapeutics for about $2.22billion to strengthen its arsenal of blood cancer therapies.
• Analysts expects positive data from late stage trail of estrasimod performance and estimates peak sales of $2.5 billion, assuming the treatment is approved and is found to be more effective than currently approved Zeposia. The deal is expected to close in first half of 2022.

Pfizer Vaccine is Still to Debut on China Mainland

• It has almost been more than one and half year since the COVID outbreak in China, but Pfizer is yet to be approved in mainland China and in recent times, Beijing has shown inclination for homegrown mRNA vaccine, China’s Walvax Biotechnology Co. to test its own experimental shot as booster.
• Pfizer is licensed for greater China and there are doubts whether it will ever be used on its mainland as President Xi Jinping’s administration has backed a nationalist agenda almost on all fronts including fight against virus.
• More than one million Chinese have been vaccinated by traditional shots made by Sinovac Ltd and Sinopharm Group even though they are less effective against mRNA ones in scientific studies. Also it is not clear when Pfizer-BioNTech will get approved as regulators have not told why it is being held publicly.
• Chinese market will be out of reach for international pharmaceutical firms if approvals for vaccines and medicines required for COVID is made a political issue rather than biological and economical.

Future Outlook for Pfizer

• Pfizer is turning every stone in its favor since the outbreak of COVID, and is grabbing every opportunity thrown at it. It is taking leap and bounds for future progress by making headlines of acquisition of companies that can expand the horizon of Pfizer and can take it into treatment of different body parts.
• Going forward, strategy is made into three pillars, advancing the internal pipeline, continuing to pursue outside opportunities and exploring the combination of technology and data to accelerate growth.
• The stock is trading above 50 days and 200 days moving average and that signifies that bullish trend is intact in short term and long term. Also the RSI line is not in overbought zone indicating that momentum can continue for coming weeks or probably months.
• Finally, successful trial results of antiviral treatment Paxlovid will give a major boost to overall demand for Pfizer and analysts see Pfizer earnings as much as $50 billion in sales from COVID-19 vaccines in 2022, which can make Pfizer a darling of Wall Street going forward. 

-Vineet Agarwal

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